Am testing multiple set-ups on OV in addition to my actual trades and there are quite a few trades that I´d put under the ´too good to be true´category. Like this one where the risk-reward/probability of success if the trade is taken off at 15 days is very positive. Simply a butterfly with far OTM calls. So question is how accurate is this? Understand it´s positive vega on upside which is perhaps hard to model accurately but otherwise looks reasonably straight fwd.