Lessons learned

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by PK, Mar 25, 2018.

  1. PK

    PK Well-Known Member

    Lessons learned from the volatile 2018 market:
    - Paid services for real time data (e.g. QuoteVue) fail when you most need them to model the best way to manage your positions
    - Paid data for backtesting become unavailable for unknown reasons (OptionVue) when you most need them to recapitulate fast moving markets a few days back
    - Paid alert services tend to reduce content and communication when things don't work out as expected (CD; Kevlar definitely and RTT following through)
    - Recommended brokers change their margin rules when markets do not behave as expected
    - ... much more things to add, of course.

    Conclusion:
    Go your own way and wisely allocate your resources to what keeps working in tough situations. At least it will not require the effort to blame others for your errors. Said this, I learned a lot of useful staff from the CD community, but ended up with the sweet-sour feeling of having supported a business that has not succeeded in making reality its noble educational goals beyond its intrinsic vocation of making money for its promotors. Anyway, under these circumstances, it does not surprise me that CD will split up soon into a collection of spin offs.
     
    Anil likes this.
  2. DGH

    DGH Administrator

    Hi Peter. Very interesting comments which, I'm certain, are a reflection of your thorough analysis of the February and March debacle. I have no disagreement with the essence of your statements. If I may be permitted a bit of editorial license, I would add this: 1. neither Tom nor I need the money we receive from CD and the RTT Service. In fact, I was reluctant to take on the responsibility and "bookkeeping" which is involved. I finally agreed (with considerable reservations) since Tom and I are good friends. I can only speak for myself on this issue, however. 2. Tom and I do not always trade successfully, but we are absolutely fully transparent about our live trades. You have surely seen my live TOS graphs many times, and the P/L which we report is as accurate as we can make it. When we win, we show our winnings; when we lose, we show our losses. 3. We do our best to teach the thinking behind our trade setups and adjustments, both successful and failed. We also share our new ideas and modifications of the RTT. However, since we are not actually mentoring individual subscribers, we must, of necessity, be somewhat generic in our comments and educational content. We are not permitted to make specific recommendations or give specific advice. As you know, some subscribers are minimally capitalized and others are "flush". So, it is impossible to make "one size fits all" pronouncements. I have always suggested that subscribers exit early if necessary, that they adhere to MAX LOSS rules even when I don't, and that it is not necessary for them to take my exact trades. 4. Tom and I stated in our earliest videos that we would be perfectly happy if all subscribers learned the RTT trade and then left the Service. So, I think it is, perhaps, a bit unfair to suggest that we run the Service simply for the money. We really do want subscribers to learn about the RTT strategy and about trading options in different markets. Finally, Tom and I have enjoyed your participation in the RTT community, and we wish you well in all your future endeavors.
     
  3. Kevin Lee

    Kevin Lee Well-Known Member

    To be fair, I think most of us have benefited from CD, I know I have. I am personally very grateful to Tom, Dan, Jim and many others for sharing their knowledge. Yes, I am aware that some of that is not free but still this site remains the best resource for income options traders.

    Alert services and all the trade plans shared freely must be viewed as learning platforms rather than a short cut to trading success. No one can ever be successful as a trader just by following some other people's trade.

    PK - I totally agree with what you said here. We must all strive to go our own way, developing a trade that we can call our own.

    We ought to learn the craft from first principles and not try to . It's totally reasonable to get started that way, but once we gain the basic understanding and some experience, we must ensure we understand WHY certain actions are taken because if we don't understand the WHY, we will not able to morph the trade as market environment changes.

    Having said all that, I must also say that the the past few weeks have been tough for every income trade. But that's a very normal part of the business. It's to be expected. Just like in any other business, we go through good times, we go through bad times. As long as the strategy is sound, the long term profits will take care of itself. Now is the time that tests every trader's resolve. I'd refrain from jumping around switching into things just because they seem to have worked in the past few weeks. Every strategy will have its pros and cons. Strategies that work in one environment will not work in another. Unless one can predict what market will do, jumping around might just end up in a worse outcome.
     
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2018
    Murphy Tan likes this.
  4. status1

    status1 Well-Known Member

    While the lessons learned may be true I would not come to the same conclusion except this part

    CD is not forcing anyone to use OptionVue or pay to get your own data
    If you are not happy with the service you can always stop payment and go your own way if you have learned as much as you could

    As far as CD splitting up I think that is a wrong conclusion and I hope that it does not happen
    While I have not used the RTT beyond the trial period I learned a lot from it and from all the other Round table presentations on CD and all the forum discussions so I hope that it will continue to help other newcomers develop their own personal strategies that works best for them
    Also don't be afraid to modify a strategy to fit your needs
    Keep in mind that there is no one strategy that works in all market conditions
     
  5. KiwiDon

    KiwiDon Well-Known Member

    PK I think most would agree with you about OptionVue....thanks goodness they aren't in charge of air traffic control systems!!

    Meanwhile, the market is getting tougher, no doubt about it. I just read this from MacroTourist this morning...wise "system level" thinking indeed:

    ".....All I know is that there have been periods where both stocks and their realized volatility have both headed higher. Don’t assume that by shorting VIX or executing some other short volatility strategy that you are inherently betting on a higher stock market.

    No doubt, that on average, that conclusion is correct, but how many times have we seen stable relationships completely thrown out the window? It would be just like the Market Gods to punish the vol sellers by having both volatility and stock prices shoot higher in the coming quarters. Those vol sellers would lose on both sides. The short volatility strategy will end up being a loser, while the synthetic short of not being long equities would also be a drain on the portfolio...."

    https://www.themacrotourist.com/posts/2018/03/26/volatility/
     
  6. PK

    PK Well-Known Member

    I apologize in advance for any negative interpretation my message may have caused.

    First of all, if there is any teacher I appreciate more than my university professors, DAN HARVEY. Said this, I received more lessons I paid for, definitely. BUT, my very subjective perception of the path CD was following made me think that there is a kind of discrepancy regarding rock-solid educational purposes (DAN, THANKS!!!!!), less educational but to some extent inspiriatioinal (TOM; commissions apart and hoping that MarketLife will not become another tool to justify recommendation for eternal seekers & losers) and finally absolutely useless (Why someone who fhas dedicated his whole live to work with quants discontinued his own designer Kevlar trade?).

    Anyway, my frustration regarding alert services is not that I blame them for losing money,, but how they tend up ransmiingt this to their subscribers.
     
  7. DGH

    DGH Administrator

    Hi Peter. Believe me, I fully understand your frustrations. You are absolutely correct in saying that CD is currently in a state of flux. As you know, Tom and I are moving the RTT to Aerormir, Tom's independently owned and managed site. We plan to continue our Service to all current (and new) subscribers who are interested. We will continue to introduce new ideas for setup and management of option trades in general and the RTT in particular. Amy's Weirdor Service will also be operated through Aeromir, and there will likely be other Experts who will offer educational content. As you know, I also lost money during the February-March debacle. I blame this in part on my temporary incapacity after my concussion which, as luck would have it, occurred during a period in which I was traveling. In the future I plan to notify subscribers when I am traveling or if, for health reasons, I am temporarily unable to monitor my positions in my usual manner. I will also offer suggestions for position management in the event that I am not at my desk. Trading is never without risk, as you know, and the risks associated with rising volatility often present themselves with little warning. That's part of the challenge (and frustration) of trading options. Thanks for taking the time to share your thoughts.
     
  8. AKJ

    AKJ Well-Known Member

    This is all very disappointing to hear.

    This quote from Dan is spot on. I have never subscribed to the RTT service because quite frankly, I never needed to. I am familiar with the techniques being used and they are part of the toolbox I use to approaching each trading opportunity. These techniques are quite powerful and worth much more than whatever monthly fee the subscribers were/are paying.

    I imagine the RTT service has two types of subscribers: those who take the commentary, demonstrations, and lessons to design a strategy that fits their own personality, and those who simply want someone else to tell them what to do and when. Those who took the opportunity to learn are probably taking recent market volatility in stride, while those who wanted to remove all agency from their trading decisions are probably frustrated, disappointed, and wondering how something that made money for 2+ years is suddenly struggling.
     
  9. Jerryb351

    Jerryb351 Active Member

    Are all the round table discussions currently held on CD going to be held on Aerormir?
     
  10. DGH

    DGH Administrator

    I don't think that Tom has decided yet. I'm sure he will keep everyone informed as the transition evolves.
     
  11. Jerryb351

    Jerryb351 Active Member

    Ok thanks Dan
     
  12. Ingenol

    Ingenol Well-Known Member

    (RTT subscriber here) I haven't received any information about Aeormir--will we be receiving info about the switch and how to continue receiving the service?
     
  13. DGH

    DGH Administrator

    Hi Ingenol. The transition should be automatic, and you will continue to receive the Service. Tom will keep you informed.
     
  14. status1

    status1 Well-Known Member

    Is it too late to change the name of the website ?
    It seems that if I do a Google search on AEROMIR there is some stupid inhaler shows up at the top of the page
    So I deliberately have to type AERORMIR to get the website to show up unless maybe Google has to be paid to show up at the top of the page ?
     
  15. DGH

    DGH Administrator

    The inhaler is actually airormir. Once you have used Aeromir.com the website will show on your browser URL list. Check it out.
     
  16. status1

    status1 Well-Known Member

    Yes that's true It's just the way google finds that one first because the 2 words are so close in the spelling
    So I have to click on Search instead for Aeromir or add the .com after it to make sure it doesn't pick up the other spelling
    Even as I type the word and tries to autocomplete it uses airomir unless I add the .com after it
    It's no big deal it's just an extra step that has to be made to find the correct website
    Also it would have been better if it had some meaningful name to be more easily recognized as some financially related site rather than some obscure name unless that was the intent but that's just my feedback
     
  17. tom

    tom Administrator Staff Member

    The Round Tables will be migrated to Aeromir. Jim may want to do some at CD but any that I schedule will be at Aeromir.
     
  18. tom

    tom Administrator Staff Member

    I've been really busy with our recent move. I migrated the RTT database tables to Aeromir two weeks about but I have to update it now. I can't directly copy the database primary key fields any longer since Amy Meissner is now sending out alerts so I have to write some new code to migrate the changed data. After I do that, I'll update the code so when Dan or I post anything at Aeromir, it also posts at CD for the time being.
    Once that is working, I'll start moving the subscriber accounts. When that starts I'll send you your login. Of course, you can create an account at Aeromir now. Go to https://aeromir.com and click on the orange Join Now button:

    2018-03-30_17-43-12.png

    Still a bit of work ahead for me. For now, the RTT alerts are still at CD.
     
  19. Neil

    Neil Active Member

    Tom, are you migrating only the RTT service and trading group to Aeromir?
    Neil Gillis
     
  20. tom

    tom Administrator Staff Member

    Hi Neil,
    No. Igi will have the Triple Tool Trade alerts and Bruno will move the Rhino. Ali Pashaei is also doing something new with Aeromir. We spoke about it a week or so ago but I've been swamped this week so we'll talk more next week I imagine.
    Trading Group 2 will stay at CD for the short term but will move. I have to ask the other trading group members what they want to do. Leslie's Technical Analysis trading group will almost surely move as Leslie and I work together with client capital.

    Before any existing stuff moves, I have to finish coding the migration scripts and move the data and turn on posting new information to both sites during the move.
     

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