Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by gtnz, Jun 24, 2014.
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It's nice to see your charts again. It's been a long time. I agree that the normal price-based indicators aren't as predictive as people assume they are. They are useful to me in the sense that I can see what other people are basing their decisions on. For instance, Fibonacci levels generally tend to work because so many people use them, they are a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. It's not a bad idea to take profits ahead of the market hitting fib levels for instance.
I have used Murrey Math lines in the past, which are related to Gann's work. (see http://wintrend.com/MurreyMath.aspx )
The prediction at forecasts.org has the low in Nov around an SPX of 1720. The 80% accuracy range is +/- 128 points so it's quite a large target, but it aligns pretty well with your road map. Interestingly, they are predicting the high this year in July of 1930 +/- 74 points, which is where we are now. We could drift a little higher before turning lower, or we could have already reached the top as you said. In any case, it looks like a good time to watch the downside in your positions!
I agree Fibonacci levels are useful as they show you the strength or weakness of a market. The larger the retracement the weaker the market is. But indicators like macd,rsi,stoc, are not much use for my style of trading. Others may find they help and if they do then I'd keep using them.
ES Futures Update
This futures contract is the main one I do my forecasting calculations on. I had a target price of 1959 for June 23 and it went to 1959.75. On the 24th however the ES contract turned back up. It's never a good thing to see a market go against your position and especially when you've opened your big gob as well. However, it went one more day and clicked around on the on the square of 9 to 1960, amazing stuff. From this high of 1960 the futures fell away again quite heavily and closed down 18 points from the high on increasing volume. There's plenty of volatility here which has me wondering what the hells going on. Thinking back to previous market tops, it looks to me like this could be a top that will stand out on a weekly chart in the future.
If the 1960 high is taken out on the futures and it keeps running up then this market is setting up for a major reversal and panic. There's some divergence in the indices. The Dow futures have made a lower top but the ES futures haven't. The SPX and Dow cash have basically made double tops so if these markets were going to carry on up I would of expected to see the futures above the cash markets but this isn't the case. At present the ES is 1948 and SPX is 1956.
Some stocks are setting up as really good shorts, AAPL is one of them.
I am not a big fan of AAPL's long term advancement but what are you seeing that makes it look like a short? I see it getting up to 100ish which could be a double top (post split) and an extended move up due for a retracement but I would be interested in what you see. Pulling up the SPY weekly 3yr I look at it and it really puts the trend in perspective. I can't find anything objectively that says this is the top. I am always interested in other people's forecasting methods.
Hi, my forecasting work is based on Gann's methods and it's taken me since 1996 to get a handle on this stuff and make it workable for me. There's no way I'm going to just blurt out here how I do it. Every trader must create his own edge in the market, this is my edge that's come at considerable cost and sacrifice. To do justice to this subject I'd need a day just to outlay the basic framework, otherwise you'd never understand it. In any case it's never just one thing I use to make a forecast. There are many elements to a forecast and the more things lining up for a specific date the stronger I am on it working. If AAPL keeps going up and takes this last top out soon then I'm just plain wrong. I can live with that no problem. You can never be 100% right all the time. The way this stock made that last top though is quite interesting if you study it closely.
Sorry, didn't mean to imply I was asking for the keys to your castle. I was just curious if there was something in general you saw that made AAPL a top. I have changed my technical analysis to try and give me a good idea of what the market is doing. I have found what works for me is to participate, not predict. However, I have always been fascinated by Gann, Babson, Andrews, Drummond etc. I truly believe there is a geometry to the markets, for some reason though I just can't make it click for me. Thanks again for your charts on these threads, they provide an interesting perspective.
Hi there sorry to come across a bit harsh too. The study of cycles is a huge field which is often very misunderstood. Like I said it's taken me a long time to get the Gann stuff working for me and I'm happy with it. Problem is when people ask me what I see it's difficult to tell them because it's never just one thing.
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