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Britexit

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Edward, Jun 17, 2016.

  1. Edward

    Edward Well-Known Member

    The Britexit matter has been hitting our pocket book rather hard lately. I thought I would start a discussion forum on this subject. The polls seem to indicate a favor of an exit lately. This does not surprise me since the British historically are a fiercely independent lot. One member of Parliament was even assassinated for chosing to stay in the European Union. They were almost Empire of the world once. Today Brintain is a minor player in the World economy. The Economic power lies in the U.S, China and Germany. Even France is a Bigger economy then Britain. Basically if Britain leaves the European Union it means very little to the U.S., the former British colony except for the U.S stock market and our equity investment. See article.
    https://www.google.com/amp/www.nbcn...oms-n593441?client=ms-android-hms-tmobile-us#
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2016
  2. Gabor Maly

    Gabor Maly Well-Known Member

    Will be an interesting next week for sure Edward. Like everything in politics this is another emotionally fuelled event with little to no reliance on hard facts from either side (especially from leavers).
     
    Jose Perez and mallums like this.
  3. Jason A

    Jason A Member

    With the Brexit referendum coming in days, how would you all manage your existing trade positions? Do you feel the outcome of the referendum can cause the market to go hard in either direction that may affect our current trade positions ? To be on the safe side, I plan to take profits and close out my trades first. I am curious to know the possible course of actions you all may have in mind.
     
  4. Edward

    Edward Well-Known Member

    Basically, I bought Puts. In hindsight it would have been better to take profit early. The futures market indicate a hard rebound today and it's only based on Brexit polls. Nothing is certain until all the votes are actually counted.
     
  5. tom B

    tom B New Member

    I think could be of help regarding the matter.
    Brexit timeline:
    Time (U.S. Eastern in parenthesis) Event
    7 a.m. (2.a.m.) Polling stations open
    10 p.m. (5 p.m.) Polling stations close, no exit polls
    Around 11:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m.) First announcements on voter turnout
    12:30 a.m. (7:30 p.m.) Results expected for first counting areas
    3-4 a.m. (10-11 p.m.) Results from half of the counting areas are in
    Around 5 a.m. (midnight) About 80% of counting areas have reported results
    7 a.m. (2 a.m.) All votes are likely to have been counted and the official result is expected shortly after.

    :(
     
  6. stevegee58

    stevegee58 Well-Known Member

    I live on the US east coast and plan on staying up until around midnight.
    I probably sound like a conspiracy theory nutter but The Powers That Be simply can't allow the British exit so it won't happen. The VIX will plummet on Friday.
     
  7. Teddy

    Teddy Well-Known Member

    I don't know how the market makers do it, but I have a trade that should the following Greeks:
    Delta: -31
    Gamma: -.84
    Theta: 1026
    Vega: -5614
    It has sat here with $100 of theta since Monday. I suspect that they raised the volatility which reduces the value of the short options. I suppose I should get rid of some longs legs to take advantage of the drop in volatility.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2016
  8. vega4mike

    vega4mike Well-Known Member

    With a big event on the horizon, your options won't decay, with the MM's effectively adding time to your positions hence, the term volatility is synthetic time. MM's don't know the outcome so, they are not going to expose themselves to any risk especially if your options are in the same period as the event. The decay will resume after the event.
     
  9. Edward

    Edward Well-Known Member

    With just a couples of hours left to BrExit any Wild gusses on the outcome of the Vote? :confused:
     
  10. Boomer34

    Boomer34 Well-Known Member

    I'm reading that it's not going to happen...which is what I expected...but obviously nothing is official
     
  11. Edward

    Edward Well-Known Member

    Last edited: Jun 24, 2016
  12. stevegee58

    stevegee58 Well-Known Member

    S&P is down 33 points
     
  13. Trader G

    Trader G Well-Known Member

    I think today's move priced in staying, if it truly is brexit not bremain then I think we will see a breathtaking move down tomorrow.
     
  14. Edward

    Edward Well-Known Member

    Holly \×"!&'. S&P Futures down 75 points as of 11:20 Eastern.:( BBC forcast Leave will WIN.
    Like I predicted in my orginal post the British are a very independent lot.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2016
  15. tom

    tom Administrator Staff Member

    ES futures are down -95 as I write this at 00:12am ET and VIX futures are +8.45 to 25.1
     
  16. Edward

    Edward Well-Known Member

    S&P 500 Futures now down 106.
     
  17. tom

    tom Administrator Staff Member

  18. whateverls15

    whateverls15 Guest

    This is the biggest event after the Cold War lol
     
  19. Teddy

    Teddy Well-Known Member

    I closed lots of short puts yesterday and took pain as the /ES kept go up to the moon close its all time high with the rumor that Britain would not exit.

    But this drop is ugly.

    It seems that income trading is not good at the top of the market compared to when it is at the bottom. At the tops, it seems that it is better to give up the income for +ve gamma positions because when the market drops, it does not take the stairs but the window.
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2016
  20. vega4mike

    vega4mike Well-Known Member

    Expect a lot more uncertainity from us lot in the UK, PM has resigned, new leader expected in October, so lots of political uncertainity with a dead walking PM, potential general election might follow, as we wouldnt have elected the new PM, so this is set to run in the UK for a while.:eek:
    However, I expect the US markets to settle down soon, its really a UK/Europe mess, my opinion.
     

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