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Beginners and Small Account Trading Group sep 14th presentation

Discussion in 'Beginner Traders' started by status1, Sep 24, 2017.

  1. status1

    status1 Well-Known Member

    I wanted to ask a question about the table used in the presentation starting at around 39:30 into the video

    Is that a realistic representation of a winning portfolio ?
    Or is that just a probability analysis view of a simulated portfolio ?
    It sounds easy as a probability analysis but what kind of real trades can be made that can make 50% ?
    Loosing 50% or more that is easy anyone can do that
    While the idea of spreading the trades over different strategies makes sense and I have already been doing that I don't see those kinds of results
    I am guessing those are not made with the normal RTT or any simple butterfly trades
    in trade 2 column you have one trade going from 68k to 238k which is more than 100%
    What is that penny stocks ?
    I am guessing you would need a lot bigger trading account in order to gamble 68k on one trade

    How about a more realistic portfolio of a 30k account size with real trades that someone can achieve with real trading results ?
     
  2. Tim

    Tim Well-Known Member

    Thanks for the question. That was from Wayne's presentation and so I will send this question to him and post his answer here. Hold on for a day or two...
     
  3. Tim

    Tim Well-Known Member

    Here is Wayne’s answer to your question:

    This was a simulated portfolio as I said earlier in the presentation so that I could fit the results on one page. Over the long term if you use a proportional risk of anything that is 60% success rate it will eat itself alive. The point was to show how the concept of using higher volatility strategies that offset and compliment your other trades and using constant reallocation can smooth and boost returns exponentially.

    If your strategies are not complimenting each other than they will cannibalize returns rather than amplify. Remember that the data set and sample size in important. if you have only traded 20 trades then the sample size is too small. you need at least 200 traded to utilize proper equity curve comparison and allocation. At Blackpier Capital we have trades that produce over 100% returns on individual trades. Those have butterfly concepts to them but are not like RTT trades. They are extremely volatile and gamma heavy. Anything is possible in the market if all you care about are sheer profits.

    I will Post the sheet so you can look at the calculations and see why the number add up like this.

    I was teaching concepts not a portfolio that someone should use. It was a thought provoking exercise. If you would like to see a real portfolio that uses these concepts just contact us at Blackpier Captial and you can see real results with Live trades. Unfortunately I am not allowed to post them.
     

    Attached Files:

  4. status1

    status1 Well-Known Member

    Thanks for the explanation and I understand the concept but I think it would nave been more interesting to show some real world trades examples (they don't have to be live) just to have an idea of what kind of trades we are talking about
    that can generate these kind of results and how much risk is involved how much margin is required
    I imagine these kind of trades need to be more closely monitored
     

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